Ghost In The Machine
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Welcome to the October 2018 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, which as ever covers a broad range of topics, though loosely themed around upcoming conferences: London Sugar Week, LME week, ECE Grains (Rouen) and Global Grain (Geneva).
In this edition we look at what has been driving the world’s sugar markets, which have been in a protracted bear market since the start of 2017. The LME has made a reduction in trading fees permanent in a bid to boost trading volumes, but is there a case for reviewing initial margins.
For all the noise that surrounds the US efforts to re-arrange its trading relationships, above all those with NAFTA, China and the EU, with the pendulum swinging towards protectionism, China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative which spans Asia and Europe is the most ambitious economic co-operation project that has ever been seen, and is having a very profound impact on Eurasia, particularly in agriculture.
As the January 2020 deadline for the IMO 2020 ruling for the reduction of marine fuel sulphur to 0.5% from 3.5%, how are the various stakeholders preparing for its implementation? October also see the presidential elections in Brazil, the outcome of which remains very uncertain, and has been overshadowed by the Operation Car Wash scandal. With less than 6 months until the UK leaves the EU, we ask whether Britain’s economy is fated to fail as some have argued.
The polarisation of politics in Europe, UK and the USA begs the question: have we lost the ability to debate. As the Federal Reserve continues its rate hiking cycle and balance sheet reduction, we look at the record run in US stock indices, why the TINA phenomenon of recent years has not died, and whether inflation is getting some traction. Last but not least, we look at Structure Trade Finance.
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