Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q2 2025 Results
August 5, 2025
Welcome to the Q2 2025 edition of the Ghost In The Machine
Welcome to the Q2 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as the conflict between Iran and Israel is added to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and global trade tensions continue to run high, even though financial market risk appetite appears to remain relatively robust.
In this edition, we take a look at the realities of globalization, the current push back (‘deglobalization’) against it, how much of the populist political agenda can actually be realized, and some of the potential opportunities. The USTR’s measures to try and counter China’s dominance in maritime shipping and shipbuilding are due to come into force in October 2025, there is a detailed look some of the strategies that are being adopted to deal with them, and how these will likely change vessel deployment and freight rates.
In April of this year, the US CFTC issued a public consultation document on moving to 24-hour, 7 day a week markets, and the potential uses, benefits and risks in derivatives markets.
This is not a genuinely new idea, we consider some of the lessons from prior initiatives, and some of the implications for liquidity, risk management and compliance. The USD’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and safe haven is once again being questioned, but what are the realities in terms of actual flows, and how are FX reserve managers adjusting and diversifying their portfolios.
Sugar like many other agricultural commodities has had another choppy ride in price terms this year, so what are the supply prospects in key producers such as India, Thailand and above all Brazil, and price outlook implications.
Like many industries in Europe, the market for frozen fries looks to be at a major crossroads, there is an in-depth look at key challenges for industry, and how are market strains likely to play out.
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
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