Ghost In The Machine
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Welcome to the April 2018 edition of The Ghost in the Machine, which engages with the twin geo-political themes of the moment – Russia and US/China trade tensions. It revisits some familiar themes such as the impact of QE on markets, bitcoin and the evolution of the world’s cereals markets and changes to storage practices, while also taking a look at the merits of silver versus gold.
The perceptions and narratives surrounding Russia are often steeped in myopic stereotypes, and are thus hampered by tribalism, as well as ignoring important lessons from history, which require scrutiny at the current juncture. We also look at the broader economic and financial backdrop for Russia. The threat of a trade war between the US and China has understandably captivated markets, but what is the rationale? Will either side benefit in any way, and where are the vulnerabilities?
For all that perceived and actual policy and political risks have shaken markets from time to time since the global financial crisis, ultimately they have bounced back. But is the tide now going out on that resilience? The resilience has been attributed to central bank policies and liquidity, however the colossal swing in corporate financing from equity to debt, which started after the dotcom bubble has been a major, but under-discussed factor.
The efficacy and merits of trading strategies has spawned more column inches than could be absorbed in a lifetime, but what about the biochemistry that underlies the physical and emotional reactions to trading?
Bitcoin has journeyed from the hinterland of anarcho-capitalism into the mainstream spotlight, but it is the underlying technology which may prove to be the enduring legacy. Finally silver demand straddles the divide between safe haven and real world needs, which will be more important in the near term?
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