Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
- US Independence Day holiday to keep trading volumes thin; digesting RBA rate decision, South Korea CPI and German Trade; Canada Manufacturing PMI and Brazil Industrial Production ahead
- RBA keeps tightening bias, but stresses uncertain economic outlook, rate peak likely close
- Markets still full of contradictions as H2 2023 kicks off
EVENTS PREVIEW
It being the US Independence Day holiday, the schedule of data and events is light. There are the RBA’s no change rate decision, Korean CPI, German Trade and Spanish Unemployment to digest, while ahead lies little more than Canada’s Manufacturing PMI and Brazil’s Industrial Production. The RBA decision was as expected after the lower than expected inflation data, and while it retained a tightening bias, it noted: “The higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so”, adding: “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve”, with markets factoring one further rate hike in September or October. Tensions between China and the USA show no signs of easing, as China moved to restrict exports of key chip metals, and the US looks to restrict China access to cloud computing services, despite Yellen’s upcoming visit from Thursday, and yet the Nasdaq has made fresh all-time highs, after a gain in H1 not seen in over 40 years. Markets remains replete with contradictions, as the US yield curve stands at its most inverted in 42 years, implying an imminent and deep recession, but risk appetite looks to be voracious, when judged on the basis of equity market performance despite very high valuation level, and indeed as credit spreads head crunch in towards recent lows, while volatility remains low. FOMO (fear of missing out), above all due to the still large volume of central bank QE liquidity, explains much of this, but at the same time exacerbates the risk of a sharp about turn in the event of an unanticipated shock.
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