Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
Busier day for data dominated by surveys; digesting UK BRC Shop Prices, Australia Retail Sales, French & German Consumer Confidence; awaiting Eurozone M4, Brazil inflation, US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales; plenty of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers; UK and US bond auctions
US Consumer Confidence seen falling for fourth month as softer labour demand and high mortgage rates weigh; labour differential key
US House Prices: further solid gains expected, but data for September, so lagging current trends
EVENTS PREVIEW
A busier day with surveys dominating the statistical schedule, featuring the overnight UK BRC Shop Prices, Australia Retail Sales and German & French Consumer Confidence, while ahead lie Eurozone M3 & Private Sector Credit, Brazil’s IBGE Inflation IPCA-15, US Consumer Confidence, FHFA & CoreLogic House Prices, and Richmond & Dallas Fed surveys. Central bank speakers are very abundant, though it seems unlikely that any of the Fed, ECB and BoE speakers will do anything other than stick to the pushback on market rate cut expectations. Govt bond supply is also quite plentiful via way of Japan 40-yr, UK 30-yr and US 7-yr, while the highlights of the North American earnings run are likely to include: Crowdstrike, HP Enterprise, Intuit, Alimentation Couche-Tardand and Bank of Nova Scotia.
** U.S.A. – Nov Consumer Confidence; Sep House Prices **
Consumer Confidence is seen easing to 101.0 from 102.6, a fourth consecutive m/m fall, predicated on easing labour demand, lingering pressures on household spending and higher mortgage rates. The Labour Differential will be a particular point of focus, having steadied around 26.0 over the past 3 months, after a 6 point fall between July and August had suggested a more material easing trend in labour demand. House Price data are expected to show solid m/m gains of 0.4% for the FHFA measure and 0.7% for the CoreLogic measure, but as this is September data, it does not yet reflect waning demand as some 30yr mortgage rate near 8.0%, leaving many potential buyers severely stretched.
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