Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
Relatively busy data for data and events has UK GDP and activity indictors, Norway CPI, French and Italian Production to digest, awaiting US PPI, Canada labour data, ECB and Fed speakers, USDA WASDE report
UK: ‘pingdemic’ and supply chain disruptions weigh heavily, risk of stagflationary scenario emerging rising
US PPI: some moderation seen in m/m terms as energy price pressures eased, but still on an upward path in y/y terms
Russia: further 50 bps rate expected, but Bank Rossi likely to signal pause as inflation shows signs of topping out
EVENTS PREVIEW
A relatively busy day for data and events awaits, though very heavily fron loaded, with the array of UK GDP and business activity indicators, Norwegian CPI and French and Italian CPI to digest ahead of US PPI and Canadian labour data. Following on from the ECB’s clearly dovish message at yesterday’s council meeting, there are a number of ECB speakers and Fed’s Mester, with Russia’s Bank Rossi holding its policy meeting and agricultural commodity markets looking to the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
As much as one can attribute much of the larger than expected slowdown in UK GDP to just 0.1% m/m from June’s 1.0% to the ‘pingdemic’, with supply chain bottlenecks, above all in the auto sector, and chronic shortages of truck drivers in the transport sector hampering manufacturing output overall, the auspices for the UK economy are starting to deteriorate. While it is too early to form a proper judgement, the risk of a stagflationary scenario emerging do need to be seriously considered, with this week’s NI hike clearly not helping, as evidenced also by the sharp drop in support for the ruling Conservative party.
Russia’s Bank Rossi is expected to hike rates a further 50 bps to 7.0%, that would represent a cumulative 275 bps since March. But with the economy clearly losing momentum, and inflation showing signs of topping out, it will likely suggest that this hike will be the last for the time being.
US PPI is expected to see some easing in the headline m/m pace to 0.6%, which would be the lowest since December on the back of energy prices, while core is expected to drop back to the still high average pace that prevailed in March through June, but both would still pick up in y/y terms.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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