Global Ag News For Aug 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Importers struggle to resell Canadian canola meal caught in China tariff crossfire

• Up to 400,000 tons of canola meal stuck in warehouses – traders
• Importers want to resell cargoes to Asian animal feed makers
• Traders say canola meal cargoes being offered at 30% discount
• Trade tensions hit agricultural trade

Importers are struggling to resell several cargoes of Canadian canola meal that arrived in China after Beijing imposed hefty import tariffs on the protein-rich ingredient, three trade sources said.

Up to 400,000 metric tons of canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, is sitting in secure warehouses near Chinese ports, with importers facing a 100% duty if they release the cargoes for sale in the domestic market.

“It is not viable to pay the duty, so we are looking at the possibility of re-selling it to other markets, maybe to feed-makers in Southeast Asia or South Korea,” said an executive with a trading company that is one of the importers of canola meal.

“But it will have to be at a discount,” the person said, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

Traders said the canola meal was being offered at a discount of about 30%.

The stuck cargoes underscore the struggles of agricultural companies caught in the middle of trade standoffs, at a time when Washington and Beijing’s tariff war has disrupted trade in farm products including soybeans.

China on Tuesday announced a preliminary anti-dumping levy of 75.8% on imports of canola oilseed from Canada, escalating a year-long trade dispute that began last August with Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.

In March, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and pea imports.

“These measures show how the Chinese government is super angry with the Canadian government,” said a trader at a company which runs oilseed processing plants in China. “They suddenly increased the duty to 100% on canola meal, which was not expected.”

Two of the traders estimated the stranded canola meal volumes at 400,000 tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 13 1/2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans up 51 1/2; Soymeal up $12.90; Soyoil up 0.35.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 1/2 in SRW, down 21 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/2; Soybeans up 49 3/4; Soymeal up $22.10; Soyoil down 1.86.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.6% in SRW, down 10.0% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 19.1%; Soybeans up 2.5%; Soymeal down 7.6%; Soyoil up 34.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 16 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil down 10; Palm oil down 16; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 30.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.68%) at 4405.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 746 Soyoil; 1,621 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 13 were: SRW Wheat up 7,325 contracts, HRW Wheat down 262, Corn up 14,024, Soybeans down 4,013, Soymeal up 1,940, Soyoil up 1,318.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 14 Aug 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures are anticipated across much of the U.S. this week, with below-normal rainfall expected in most regions except the Midwest/North Plains
• SOUTH AMERICA: Moderate rains anticipated across Argentina’s Pampas region, while Brazil is expected to experience below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures next week
• EUROPE: Above-normal temperatures continue across Europe this week, accompanied by wet spells
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia are experiencing cooler-than-normal temperatures, with wet spells likely across both regions this week

 

Northern Plains: Another front will move into the region Wednesday night and bring sporadic showers through the weekend as it stalls. The front should completely move out early next week. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could continue to negatively impact wheat quality and harvest.

Central/Southern Plains: Sporadic showers may develop throughout the rest of the week before the next front moves into northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side. The front will push through next week, bringing showers and a relief in temperature.

Midwest: A slow-moving front continues through the region Wednesday, bringing some areas of heavy rain. Flooding has been an issue in several areas from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin earlier this week. Some areas have been missed by the rain in the east, which is concerning after a couple of weeks of drier weather. Temperatures will be increasing going into the weekend, too. Another front will move into northwestern areas on Friday and stall a couple of days before moving eastward next week. Some areas of flooding around Minnesota are going to be possible and temperatures will fall behind the front. Other areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall, helping with filling corn and soybeans where they hit. However, more areas are likely to get missed and could compound some of the dryness that has occurred in the east.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue in the region into next week as a weak front stalls in the region. Dry spots are popping up in the region and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Some areas are also going to be missed, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as cotton. The tropics are also starting to become more alive and will need to be watched, though no immediate impacts are forecast for at least the next week.

Canadian Prairies: Areas of heavy rain over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but have been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances through this weekend. More rainfall is expected next week and could set back harvest and quality some more. But it should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

Europe: Hotter and drier conditions will continue in most places through the weekend, though a front moving through later this week may produce some limited showers in a few lucky areas in the northeast. This will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

Black Sea: Though some showers moved through northeastern areas, it continues to be very dry for much of the region. A weak system could bring limited showers through this weekend into next week, but coverage is forecast to be awfully low. More reports of drought stress continue to pop up on social media as harvest continues for wheat and corn continues to fill. Good weather has come in short bursts this season, with stress due to heat and dryness more common than not.

China: A front will continue showers in portions of central China for the rest of the week and another disturbance is forecast for late week and weekend with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Central China has endured more instances of heat and dryness than other areas of the country and could really use the rain. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

 

The player sheet for 8/13 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 133,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase around 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 7.

• Corn est. range 1,150k – 2,800k tons, with avg of 1,967k
• Soybean est. range 450k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 950k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 4.7% to 22.649M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.722 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.093m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.084m

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2024-25 Corn Output Seen at 134.6M Tons

Brazil corn production seen 2.6m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of as many as nine analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 132m tons to 139m tons
• Brazil’s soybean crop seen a million tons higher at 170.5m tons
• Last month, the agency raised its corn output est. by 3.7m tons and revised down its soybean est. by about 100,000 tons

 

India’s July palm oil imports fall as soyoil jumps to 3-year high

• Palm oil imports drop 10.5% m/m to 855,695 tons
• Soyoil imports rise 36.9% m/m to 492,336 tons
• Sunflower oil imports fall 7.5% m/m to 200,010 tons

India’s palm oil imports declined in July following cancellations of import contracts, while soyoil shipments jumped to a three-year high, driven by competitive prices and the arrival of delayed June consignments, a leading trade body said.

Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could lead to a stock buildup in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and weigh on benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

India’s palm oil imports in July fell 10.5% to 855,695 metric tons from June, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said on Thursday.

Imports of soyoil increased 36.9% to 492,336 tons, the highest level in three years, and sunflower oil imports fell 7.5% to 200,010 tons, the industry trade body said in a statement.

Higher imports of soyoil lifted India’s total edible oil imports in July by 1.1% to 1.55 million tons from a month earlier, the highest level since November, the SEA said.

Palm oil imports fell in July because of the order cancellations, but they could rise in August as refiners are building stocks for the upcoming festival season, said a Mumbai-based trader.

In India, edible oil demand, particularly for palm oil, typically rises during the festival season due to increased consumption of sweets and fried foods.

A significant amount of soyoil is being diverted to substitute rapeseed oil, which is currently fetching a hefty premium over other edible oils, the dealer said. India’s soyoil imports are poised to surge 60% year-on-year to a record 5.5 million tons in 2024/25, six dealers told Reuters earlier this week. The country buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. India’s drive to produce more ethanol is leading its farmers to switch away from growing oilseeds, undermining government efforts in the world’s largest buyer of cooking oils to reduce costly imports.

 

French Wheat, Barley Harvests Show Largely Good Quality in 2025

France recorded its earliest soft-wheat harvest of the past five years, with “satisfactory” production and quality levels, according to a joint press release from FranceAgriMer, Arvalis and Terres Inovia.

• Average protein content is between 10.5% and 11.5%
• Thanks to good weather conditions, specific weights are mostly high, with regional averages between 77kg/hl and 80kg/hl
  • Rain in recent weeks on unharvested areas in the north may however affect weights there
• Durum wheat, winter barley and spring barley are also mainly of “good” quality, with “satisfactory” protein and weight levels
• The quality of rapeseed is “remarkable,” with an oil content of more than 45%, a marked increase compared with 2024

 

Argentina Corn Planting Seen Widening in 2025-26, Rosario Says

Corn acreage next season is likely to increase as soybean margins narrow and with good soil moisture reserves for early planting of the grain, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly crop estimates report.

• Central areas could see a 15%-20% y/y rise in corn acreage
• For the current 2024-25 corn crop, harvest progress is 88%
  • Production estimate kept at 48.5m metric tons
• WHEAT
  • Widespread rains are helping wheat plants, which are harvested at year-end
  • “It’s a tough ask to have good rains across the entire Pampas region, but that’s what is happening”
  • For now, production estimate is kept at 20m tons from a planted area of 6.9m hectares (17m acres)

 

German 2025 Grain Output Forecast Raised on Wheat, Corn: DRV

Germany’s 2025 total grains harvest is now estimated at 43m tons, up from last month’s forecast of 41.7m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said in a report.

• That would be 10% higher than the 2024 crop
• Crop estimates include:
  • Wheat seen at 22.4m tons, up from July’s forecast of 21.6m tons
  • Barley seen at 10.3m tons, down from 10.4m tons
  • Corn seen at 4.6m tons, up from 4.5m tons
• “Larger cultivation areas and higher yields per hectare have particularly contributed to the strong volume,” Guido Seedler, DRV grain market expert, said in the note
• Heavy rains in the middle of the harvest benefited the corn crop, while the quality of other grains suffered
• Protein levels in wheat are largely better than 2024, but differ among different regions
• Rapeseed crop seen at 3.88m tons, up 7% y/y

 

China allocates 1.1 billion yuan to support grain production

China’s finance and agriculture ministries have allocated 1.1 billion yuan ($153.34 million) in disaster relief funds for stabilising autumn grain production in major grain-producing regions, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Wednesday.

The funds will support 13 regions, including Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Hunan, in subsidising the spraying of growth regulators, foliar fertilisers, stress-resistance agents and pesticides on corn, soybeans and mid-season rice, CCTV said.

($1 = 7.1738 Chinese yuan renminbi)

 

China’s Zhengzhou exchange issues risk notice for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil market

China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on Wednesday issued a market risk notice due to recent uncertainties in the rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil market.

China’s most active Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures CRSMcv1rose over 3% on Wednesday, driven by expectations of tight supplies after Beijing announced levies on canola imports from top supplier Canada.

 

Canada ‘Ready to Engage’ With China on Trade Amid Canola Feud

Canada’s trade and agriculture ministers said they are “deeply disappointed” with China’s decision to impose new duties on Canadian canola, but stand ready to engage with Beijing on the trade dispute.

Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu and Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald issued a joint statement late Tuesday responding to China’s announcement of a 75.8% preliminary anti-dumping duty on canola seed from Canada. The new levy follows Beijing’s imposition earlier this year of a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal from the North American nation.

“We do not dump canola. Our hard-working farmers provide world-class food to Canadians and international trading partners,” Sidhu and MacDonald said. “Canada is committed to ensuring fair market access for our canola industry and we remain ready to engage in constructive dialogue with Chinese officials to address our respective trade concerns.”

While China remains Canada’s largest export market for canola after the US, exports of the crop to other regions, including the European Union, United Arab Emirates, Japan and Mexico, have increased in 2025, the ministers said. “We are steadfast in our commitment to defend and diversify Canadian trade,” they said.

Canola meal prices in China — where the commodity is known as rapeseed — jumped following the announcement of the new duty. Canola futures in New York climbed as much as 1.7% on Wednesday, after dropping 4.5% in the previous session.

China began imposing levies on Canadian canola products earlier this year in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. The Asian superpower previously restricted imports of Canadian canola in 2019, amid the feud over Canada’s arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a US extradition warrant.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who won election this year on promises to fight the trade war with the US and diversify Canada’s export markets, appeared to open the door to a thaw in relations with China in a call with Premier Li Qiang in June. The two agreed to work together on the fentanyl crisis, and Carney raised trade concerns, including on canola.

Provincial leaders in Canada have urged Carney to repair trade relations with China, particularly as US tariffs impede Canada’s access to the world’s largest economy, where it sent 75% of its exports last year. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, whose province is Canada’s top canola producer, has said the country must reset its relationship with China.

 

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 40.6% in July

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 40.6% year-on-year in July to 2.7 million metric tons, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Wednesday.

Exports via Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of all seaborne grain shipments, decreased by 45.5% year-on-year to 2.3 million tons in July.

Deliveries through the Caspian Sea, a route primarily serving Iran, increased by 114.5% year-on-year to 0.3 million tons last month.

Exports via Baltic Sea terminals, targeting new markets, including West Africa and Latin America, increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 0.1 million tons in July.

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 25.4% in the recently ended 2024-2025 season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, to around 46 million metric tons due to the implementation of export quotas in February and lower crop output.

Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last season.

 

Russian grain exporters will face increased competition in global market – expert

Russian grain exporters, primarily wheat exporters, will face increased competition in the global market, the head of the analytical department at the Agroexport federal center Alena Shatkova said.

“We face very high risks of increasing competition in African countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In North Africa, Morocco and Algeria are in the risk zone. Competition is also growing in the Middle East,” Shatkova said at an industry session during the Agro 2025 exhibition in Chelyabinsk on Wednesday.

Among the reasons, she cited the recovery of wheat production in EU countries, which may increase supplies to their traditional markets, including Morocco. In addition, additional pressure may come from Ukrainian wheat, which has lost its preferential access to the EU and may be redirected to other markets.

Global growth in the production of wheat, barley, and corn should be expected this season, which “will certainly put pressure on prices,” Shatkova said. “If we look at the countries of the Northern Hemisphere, in general, for all key wheat exporters – Russia, the EU, Canada, the U.S. and Ukraine – either a recovery in production or maintenance at average levels is expected, with the largest increase expected in the EU countries. Accordingly, it should be expected that export supply will also be at a fairly high level,” she said. “In the second half of the season, Southern Hemisphere countries join in. Here important exporters are Australia and Argentina, which are also expected to have good production figures, and as a result, will be able to put a decent amount on the market,” she said.

According to her presentation, the wheat supply from the EU in the 2025-2026 season (which began on July 1, 2025) will increase to 32.5 million tonnes from 26.5 million tonnes last season, from the U.S. – to 23.1 million tonnes from 22.5 million tonnes, from Australia – to 28 million tonnes from 23 million tonnes, and from Argentina – to 13 million tonnes from 11 million tonnes, respectively.

“On the other hand, global import demand for wheat from the Asian region is recovering. First of all, an increase in imports from Indonesia is expected, as well as a recovery in demand from China, which last year saw a rather sharp collapse in imports,” Shatkova said.

Import demand in North African and sub-Saharan African countries will remain stable, at the level of last season, she said. “If we look at the Middle East, the import potential here will grow quite noticeably, with Turkey being the catalyst. Last year, Turkey imposed a ban on wheat imports, but this year, against the backdrop of unfavorable weather conditions, it is likely to reduce production. It is expected that it will restore its imports to about 7.5 million tonnes,” she said.

Speaking about Russian exports, Shatkova recalled that Russian wheat in recent years has accounted for up to a quarter of the global market. Russian wheat dominates in the markets of Egypt, Bangladesh, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, while the key buyers of Russian barley are Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Wheat exports last season amounted to 43.5 million tonnes, which is lower than the previous record season (54.1 million tonnes). “But at the same time, there are achievements here. It should be noted that the geography has shifted somewhat. By the end of last season, greater emphasis was placed on African countries. North Africa traditionally means Egypt, a key importer, but at the same time Algeria purchased decent amounts, and supplies to Morocco grew quite significantly,” she said. Shatkova noted that Nigeria, Kenya and Tanzania were also among the African countries.

“As for Asia, here, against the backdrop of a reduction in our supply and an increase in supply from Argentina and Australia, there was some decline to certain destinations, but at the same time we retained key positions in the markets of Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia,” she said.

 

Argentina soybean production slightly up reflecting late season adjustments

2024/25 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 50.2 [49.4–51.0] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina soybean production is raised by 2% to 50.2 [49.4–51.0] million tons, reflecting late season yield adjustments to the country’s top two producing provinces, Buenos Aires and Córdoba. Despite unfavorable wet conditions during May and June, delays in these regions turned out to be not as significant as initially anticipated (though still delayed), and rather helped the crop’s later stages of development. A slight upward revision on the two provinces’ yields leads to a national-level yield of 2.91 tons per hectare (tph), compared to the previous estimate of 2.83 tph.

 

Satellite imagery shows favorable corn conditions in NE China, though heats affecting the NCP

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299.8 [293.2–305.1] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Near average precipitation and mild temperatures have supported favorable crop conditions in Northeast China. Satellite imagery shows better vegetation densities (NDVIs) than last year, indicating healthy crop development and higher yield potential. Additionally, weather forecasts call for widespread rainfall from Hebei to the Northeast, which would relieve the emerging dryness in parts of Heilongjiang. As such, we increase corn production estimate in Northeast by 1.1 million metric tons, reaching 135.0 million tons.

In contrast, persistent warm anomalies of 5-6°C since early July have affected major summer corn regions of the North China Plain (NCP), including Henan, Shandong, southern Hebei, Shanxi and Shaanxi. Although last week’s precipitation (40-130 mm) across these areas helped alleviate the drought stress—particularly in Henan, where hot and dry conditions led to severe soil moisture deficits, weather forecasts suggest hot and dry weather may return in the next two weeks and should be closely watched.

China’s total corn production is estimated at 299.8 million metric tons, up 4.8 million tons from last year due to higher yields in the Northeast.

 

 

 

 

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