Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Market Update
- Market maintains its positive outlook, albeit the rise has been steady rather than aggressive
- Draws in US stockpiles and expected tightening of the market to continue to the end of the year being the main reason for the current positivity
- Worries of Covid and the spread of the delta variant paints an uncertain picture of demand going forwards providing the hesitance to a strong rally.
- Brent backwardation drops 10 cents overnight down from recent highs. Not a clear indication the market has peaked, but worthwhile keeping an eye on the spread performance going forwards.
- Iranian president elect to take office on the 5th of August. Talks with US on the Iranian nuclear talks and the potential lifting of sanctions will begin again. The expectation is that the talks will be difficult, but some predicting that 1M to 1.5M barrels could be added by the beginning of 2022.
- Production of oil is also expected to increase in the US going forwards, with its impact likely to be felt also at the beginning of next year.
Oil Data Release
Natural Gas Exp 42 PRev 49
Macro Data Release
GDP Annualised QoQ Exp 8.5% Prev 6.4%
Initial Jobless Claims Exp 385k Prev 419k
Contact the ADMISI Energy Desk
Marco Saggese, Sharon Mitchell, Tony Scuderi
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8550 Email: energy.desk@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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