Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Market Update
- Market remains relatively neutral ahead of OPEC+ meeting today. Expectation is for a 500k barrel a day increase in production.
- We still have two opinions dominating the talks. The Russians and Khazaks wanting to increase output beyond expectations to cater for the increase in demand that has come about because of the strong vaccination program across the US and Europe and the strongly recovering economies in the US and China
- On the other side the Saudis are urging caution, with a potential flood of oil should the sanctions on Iran be lifted. This however is looking less likely in the near term as the negotiations for the Iranian nuclear talks have somewhat stalled. Other concerns sit with a potential new wave of coronavirus due to variants such as the delta variant, hindering economic recovery
- In the background the shale oil producers are awaiting the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting before deciding whether to turn on the taps
- It is difficult to determine how high the oil price would be allowed to go as inflationary fears (and possible interest rate hikes) as a result of the rising oil price are a danger to stalling any economic recovery.
Oil Data Release
Doe Natural Gas Exp 68 Prev 55
Macro Data Release
- Jobless Claims Exp 388k Prev 411k
- Markit US Mmanufacturing PMI Exp 62.6 Prev 62.6
- Construction spending MoM Exp 0.4% Prev 0.2%
- ISM Manufacturing Exp 60.9 Prev 61.2
Contact the ADMISI Energy Desk
Marco Saggese, Sharon Mitchell, Tony Scuderi
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8550 Email: energy.desk@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice. ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. © 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024
