Ag Market View for Mar 24

SOYBEANS

Soybeans, soyoil and soymeal traded higher. Talk of a better US economy helped rally US stocks, US Dollar, Crude and meats. Higher nearby futures versus new crop reflects trade outlook for a bullish USDA March 1 stocks report and may be a bearish USDA 2021 acreage guess. March 1 stocs are est near 1,500 mil bu. Futures inverse could also reflect that US farmers may have sold most of their 2020 supplies and while US soybean exports may be slowing, US soybean crush continues at a strong pace. Weekly US soybean exports are estimated near 100-400 mt versus 202 last week. Brazil weather is drier which should help soybean harvest. Some estimate Brazil vessel line up is now near 25 mmt. Last week, total US commit was near 61.3 mmt versus 45.7 last year. China commit is near 35.9 mmt with 2.0 in unknown.

CORN

Corn futures traded mixed. Talk of record weekly US export sales and slow US farmer selling supported the nearby May, Guesses of higher US 2021 US corn acres and potential supply is offering resistance to new crop Dec. Some feel strong US domestic corn basis suggest that US may be overusing the 2020 corn supplies. The inverse could also suggest that next weeks USDA estimate of US 2021 March soybean stocks could be bullish. It also suggest the acreage report could be negative. Farm Futures estimated US 2021 corn acres near 93.6 million acres. Earlier this week, Informa estimated corn acres near 94.3 versus 90.8 last year. Inverse could also suggest that US elevators and farmers may have already sold most of the US 2020 supplies. As US 2021 planting season nears, US farmers will be less willing to sell any remaining inventories. Inverse also reduce the amount of new crop 2021 US soybean crop Farmers are willing to sell. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 3,800-4,700 mt versus 985 last week. Last week, total commit was near 60.6 mmt versus 29.0 last year. USDA goal is 66.0 versus 45.1. China commit was near 19.3 mmt with 4.6 in unknown. Many feel China corn imports will be closer to 33-35 mmt versus USDA guess of 24.0. Some also feel final US exports could be higher than USDA which could drop the US carryout below 1,000 mil bu versus USDA guess of 1,502. Weekly US ethanol production down from last week and last year. Stocks were up from last week and down from last year. Margins are improving.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower. Recent rains across the US south plains has improved the US 2021 HRW crop outlook. The crop will still need timely rains especially late in April to be made. Same weather pattern is dry across US north plains. There is already talk of lower US HRS acres versus last year. Interesting to note that NOAA upgraded the America weather model. They thought that the model was too cold this winter. Yesterday’s new America model had very cold weather pattern for much of US SRW crop late next week. Today’s map is not as cold. Uncertainty over Russia 2021 crop and export policy could support wheat futures. Narrowing of wheat/corn futures spread could suggest US wheat feeding could exceed USDA guess of 125. Some could see feeding closer to 190. Largest US wheat feed/residual was 480 in 1990/91.