Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
CORN
Corn futures are unch and near 4.32. Bulls feel large US nearby export commit and increase ethanol demand is offering support. Bears feel talk of record South America crop offers long range resistance. Higher US Dollar could limit new US corn sales. CH remains in a 4.20-4.40 range. US domestic cash market basis remains firm on slow farmer selling. Weekly US corn exports were 36 mil bu. Season to date exports are 435 mil bu vs 333 ly USDA export goal is 2,325 mil bu vs 2,292 ly. This suggest Dec-Aug exports need to be near 1,890 mil bu to reach USDA goal vs 1,959 ly. Some estimate potential for South America corn crop could be as high as 189 mmt vs 177 ly.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are lower and near 9.87. Bulls feel large US nearby export commit and increase crush demand is offering support. Bears feel talk of record South America crop offers long range resistance. Higher US Dollar could limit new US soybean sales. SH could test 9.75. US domestic cash market basis remains firm on slow farmer selling. Weekly US soybean exports were 43 mil mil bu. Season to date exports are 800 mil bu vs 689 ly USDA export goal is 1,825 mil bu vs 1,695 ly. This suggest Dec-Aug exports need to be near 1,025 mil bu to reach USDA goal vs 1,006 ly. Some estimate potential for South America soybean crop could be as high as 253 mmt vs 219 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are mixed with WH near 5.46. Bears feel talk of higher South Hemisphere crops are offering resistance. Higher US Dollar could limit new US wheat sales. US domestic cash market basis remains firm on slow farmer selling. Weekly US wheat exports were 7 mil mil bu. Season to date exports are 403 mil bu vs 306 ly USDA export goal is 825 mil bu vs 707 ly. This suggest Dec-May exports need to be near 422 mil bu to reach USDA goal vs 401 ly.
All charts provided by CQG.
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