ADMISI London Wheat Report for 8 September

London wheat found some support soon after opening, hitting a trading high of £188/t Nov-21 before turning bearish in the afternoon and settling down £1.80/t on yesterday at £185.85. In the UK physical market, some market murmurs indicate a bearish view from the trade for November and December delivery and little appetite from consumers at current prices. The HRW sale to Nigeria put focus on the quality in the Baltic, whilst the Brussel’s shipment update continued to show a rapid early pace which is well above the USDA projection. Quality issues across the EU may hamper this pace going forward. Black Sea cash markets remain supported, as Russian data agencies continue with their outlook on the wheat crop being sub 75Mmt. Sept FOB was around $300/t, but October offers were around $10/12t higher in anticipation of the increased export tax.

US wheat markets continued to turn lower today, even on the back of yesterday’s Nigeria sale. The large Aussie crop has added to the weakness, the markets continue to look at ASW prices which at around $300/t, are well over $100/t cheaper than US SRW. If the slots are available and Aussie infrastructure can cope with export out-loading, it may be more than enough to generate large scale switching. Chicago Dec-21 was trading down 9 cents at time of writing.

USDA crop report noted a drop in corn ratings offering corn additional support. Conditions declined 1% to 59% gd/ex vs 62% last year. The debate for Friday’s report continues with some traders firm in their belief that harvested acres will be lowered due to the drought in the Northern Plain combined with the crop rating data that does not argue for a increase in the current yield expectations. Chicago corn Dec-21 was trading up half a cent at the time of writing.