Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Another day of profit taking and position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s report and month/quarter end. Corn has dropped around 25 cents since the early February highs but remains the best performer of the three. Soybeans have lost around 60 cents and wheat has lost 80 cents. Funds remain long of corn and beans so a disappointing report could be another kick for the bulls.
US wheat ratings continue to show signs of improvement week on week with Kansas up 5% to 50% G/E. the brazil second corn crop plantings are almost complete (98%) according to AgRural and despite the late hour seem to be developing well.
The USD has reached 4 month highs today as the EU struggles with the third Covid wave and asset liquidation in equities has buyers running for safe havens. Up until recently the GB Pound has been doing very well, strengthening 6.2% against the EUR and 11.8% vs. the USD since the start of the season according to the AHDB. This thanks mostly to the success of the vaccine rollout in the UK and hopes for a quick recovery. Further GBP strength is expected as we approach the end of the season, with $1.40 again likely according to a Refinitiv poll. In contrast the EUR is expecting to record the biggest monthly loss (in March) since July 2019 as the third wave and slow vaccine roll out dampens recovery hopes.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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