Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
Source: Future Source
The European wheat markets ( London wheat & Matif) diverged from the US, turning aggressively lower whilst the US markets stayed firmly in positive territory. A weaker USD helped this but, but doesn’t explain the full extent. The markets have been on an impressive run, and approaching overbought territory they are due a correction.
Weather conditions and the continued dryness worsening across spring wheat crops in Canada and the US continues to support Chicago wheat. Russian harvest has started to move into the Black Earth region which will provide strong indication of perceived yields which are currently on par to last year. Drier and warmer weather in Europe has allowed improved harvest activity.
Corn continues to be bullish, with continued support for both CBOT and Matif corn following the weekly conditions report and scorching heat and limited rains across the Plains and Midwest. Dry conditions in South America, with the Parana River at 77 year lows hampering export potential, focus for signs of additional export demand being pushed into the US from Argentina is now in scope.
Canadian conditions remain dry and hot with little sign of change. Germany has estimated wheat production losses of between 150Kt – 200Kt due to the recent flooding with continued issues over wheat quality but still on a perceived harvest of circa 21 – 23mt.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell & Ryan Easterbrook
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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