Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 8 to 12 May

The Week Ahead – Brief Preview:

The new week brings the gamut of US and China inflation indicators, China Trade, UK Q1 GDP and monthly activity indicators, Indian CPI and Industrial Production, along with an expected further 25 bps rate hike from the Bank of England. It will also be a busy week for monthly reports in commodity markets with the EIA’ Short-term Energy Outlook, USDA WASDE, China CASDE and CONAB’s Brazil grains and oilseeds S&D report, and Unica Brazil Sugar output. There will again plenty of corporate earnings to digest, though more from Asia and Europe than the US, where 32 S&P 500 companies will be reporting. Otherwise, it will be the US debt ceiling and concerns about US regional banks which continue to cast a long shadow, along with worries about China’s modest recovery.

US CPI is expected to see headline rise 0.4% m/m to leave the y/y rate unchanged at 5.0%, and core to rise 0.3% m/m to push the y/y rate down to a still stubbornly high 5.5% from 5.6%. PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m headline and ex-Food, Energy & Trade, which would see y/y rates marginally lower at 2.5% and 3.5% respectively, and underlining modest pipeline pressures. NFIB Small Business Optimism is seen edging down to 89.8 from 90.1, despite a pick-up in unfilled job openings to 45% from 43%.

China’s CPI and PPI are expected to weaken to 0.3% and -3.4% y/y respectively from 0.7% and -2.5% in March, and while the CPI fall could be attributed to base effects, PPI will be wholly down to weak demand, above all the fall in Iron Ore and Steel Prices. China’s Exports are expected to slow to 12.0% y/y from March’s 14.8%, but will be flattered by base effects, and this also applies to the marginal expected improvement in Imports to -0.7%. Credit aggregates will also be published.

UK GDP is forecast to post a flat m/m reading for March and to have risen 0.1% q/q in Q1, other monthly activity data for March are seen little changed or lower, while Q1 Business Investment is expected to have dipped a further 0.4% q/q. BRC Retail Sales and the RICS House Price Survey are also scheduled for release.

In the Eurozone, German Industrial Production is forecast to reverse much of February’s 2.0% m/m rise, with a drop of -1.5% m/m. Final April national CPI readings are also due. Japan looks to Household Spending, Labour Cash Earnings and the Economy Watchers Survey.

Earnings highlights for the week according to Bloomberg News are likely to include: Adnoc Gas, Ahold Delhaize, Air Products & Chemicals, Airbnb, Alcon, Allianz, Amadeus It Group, Apollo Global Management, Asian Paints, Bayer, BioNTech, Brookfield, CEZ, Coloplast, Compass Group, Coupang, Credit Agricole, Daikin Industries, Daimler Truck Holding, Deutsche Telekom, Devon Energy, Duke Energy, E.ON, Electronic Arts, EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg, Engie, Genmab, lobalfoundries, Great-West Lifeco, Hannover Rueck, Hapag-Lloyd, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Honda Motor, Hoya, ING Groep, Intact Financial, Itau Unibanco Holding, Itochu, JD, KDDI, KKR, Manulife Financial, McKesson, Merck KGAA, Mitsubishi, Nintendo, NT&T, Nutrien, Occidental Petroleum, Oversea-Chinese Banking, PayPal, Petroleo Brasileiro, PTT, Richemont, RWE, Sampo, Saudi Arabian Oil, Saudi Telecom, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Siemens Healthineers, SoftBank, SoftBank Group, Sun Life Financial, Suncor Energy, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Telefonica, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor, Trade Desk, Verbund, Vestas Wind Systems, Walt Disney, Westpac Banking.